systems and methods for ship motion forecasting are described herein. These ship motion forecasting systems can enable accurate real-time forecasting of waves and resultant vessel motions, and the useful displaying of such forecasts to users. In general, the ship motion forecasting systems and methods provide users with useful indications of ship motion forecasts by generating scrolling graphical representations of the ship motion forecasts. For example, the systems can be implemented to display on a first window portion a plurality of graphical representations of ship motion forecasts generated over a plurality of forecast cycles, where the graphical representations of new ship motion forecasts are added as generated, and where the graphical representations of previously generated ship motion forecasts are scrolled as new ship motion forecasts are added.
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11. A method of providing a forecast of future ship motion, comprising:
receiving radar data from at least one radar reflecting signals off a body of water;
generating ocean wave components from the received radar data;
generating ship motion forecasts from the generated ocean wave components; and
generating a graphical indication of the ship motion forecasts for display to a user, the graphical indication including:
a first window portion displaying a plurality of graphical representations of ship motion forecasts generated over a plurality of forecast processing cycles, each of the plurality of graphical representations of ship motion forecasts representing a ship motion forecast for a future time period, where graphical representations of new ship motion forecasts are added to the first window portion as generated and graphical representations of previous ship motion forecasts are scrolled over the second window portion as the graphical representations of new ship motion forecasts are added to the first window portion such that the graphical representations of the previous ship motion forecasts are displayed aside graphical representations of the new ship motion forecasts in the first window portion.
1. A ship motion forecasting system comprising:
at least one radar;
at least one display;
a processor;
a memory coupled to the processor; and
a ship motion forecasting program residing in the memory and being executed by the processor, the ship motion forecasting program configured to:
receive radar data from the at least one radar reflecting signals off a body of water;
generate ocean wave components from the received radar data;
generate ship motion forecasts from the generated ocean wave components; and
generate a graphical indication of ship motion forecasts, the graphical indication including:
a first window portion displaying a plurality of graphical representations of ship motion forecasts generated over a plurality of forecast processing cycles, each of the plurality of graphical representations of ship motion forecasts representing a ship motion forecast for a future time period, where graphical representations of new ship motion forecasts are added to the first window portion as generated and graphical representations of previous ship motion forecasts are scrolled over the first window portion as the graphical representations of new ship motion forecasts are added to the first window portion such that the graphical representations of the previous ship motion forecasts are displayed aside the graphical representations of the new ship motion forecasts in the first window portion.
10. A ship motion forecasting system comprising:
at least one radar;
a processor;
a memory coupled to the processor;
a ship motion forecasting program residing in the memory and being executed by the processor, the ship motion forecasting program configured to:
receive radar data from the at least one radar reflecting signals off a body of water;
generate ocean wave components from the received radar data;
generate ship motion forecasts from the generated ocean wave components; and
generate a graphical indication of the ship motion forecasts, the graphical indication including:
a first window portion displaying a plurality of graphical representations of ship motion forecasts generated over a plurality of forecast processing cycles, each of the plurality of graphical representations of ship motion forecasts representing a ship motion forecast for a future time period, where graphical representations of new ship motion forecasts are added as generated and graphical representations of previous ship motion forecasts are scrolled down as the graphical representations of new ship motion forecasts are added to the first window portion such that the graphical representations of the previous ship motion forecasts are displayed aside the graphical representations of the new ship motion forecasts in the first window portion;
a second window portion displaying a plurality of graphical representations of past ship motion forecasts generated over the plurality of forecast processing cycles, where graphical representations of new past ship motion forecasts are added and graphical representations of previous past ship motion forecasts are scrolled down as the graphical representations of the new past ship motion forecasts are added to the second window portion such that the graphical representations of the past ship motion forecasts are displayed aside the graphical representations of the new past motion forecasts in the second window portion; and
a third window portion displaying a plurality of graphical representations of past ship motion measurements.
2. The ship motion forecasting system of
3. The ship motion forecasting system of
4. The ship motion forecasting system of
5. The ship motion forecasting system of
each graphical representation of ship motion forecasts comprises a row of elements where relatively high intensity elements represent motion in a first direction and where relatively low intensity elements represent motion in a second direction opposite the first direction;
each graphical representation of past ship motion forecasts comprise a row of elements where relatively high intensity elements represent motion in the first direction and relatively low intensity elements represent motion in the second direction opposite the first direction; and
each graphical representation of past ship motion measurements comprises a row of elements where relatively high intensity elements represent motion in the first direction and where relatively low intensity elements represent motion in the second direction opposite the first direction.
6. The ship motion forecasting system of
7. The ship motion forecasting system of
8. The ship motion forecasting system of
9. The ship motion forecasting system of
12. The method of
13. The method of
14. The method of
15. The method of
each graphical representation of ship motion forecasts comprises a row of elements where relatively high intensity elements represent motion in a first direction and where relatively low intensity elements represent motion in a second direction opposite the first direction;
each graphical representation of past ship motion forecasts comprise a row of elements where relatively high intensity elements represent motion in the first direction and relatively low intensity elements represent motion in the second direction opposite the first direction; and
each graphical representation of past ship motion measurements comprises a row of elements where relatively high intensity elements represent motion in the first direction and where relatively low intensity elements represent motion in the second direction opposite the first direction.
16. The method of
17. The method of
18. The method of
19. The method of
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This application claims the benefit of U.S. Provisional Patent Application 62/395,977, filed Sep. 16, 2016, the contents of which are incorporated by reference in their entirety.
This invention was made with government support under contract N00014-11-D-0341 awarded by the United States Navy Office of Naval Research (ONR). The government has certain rights in the invention.
The present invention generally relates to wave sensing, and more particularly relates to radar wave sensing, using the resultant determined wavefield to forecast ship motions, and the display of those forecasts to users.
Many ocean-based evolutions require the offshore mooring of ships together in order to transfer people, material, or other items. For example, cargo transportation between ships can include the mooring of ships together offshore in order to transport cargo and equipment between them. These operations become challenging when there is relative motion between the ships due to ocean waves. To overcome these challenges there is a need for sensing waves in the proximity of the ships and the generation of the resultant ship motion forecasts.
The embodiments described herein provide systems and methods for providing and displaying forecasts of future ship motion. The embodiments described herein can enable accurate, near real-time forecasting of ocean waves and resultant vessel motions, and the useful displaying of such forecasts to users. Such systems and methods can be used to improve the efficiency and safety of a variety of ship operations, including the moving of cargo between ships at sea.
In general, the systems and methods described herein provide crewman and other users of a ship motion forecasting system with useful indications of ship motion forecasts by generating scrolling graphical representations of the ship motion forecasts that can be displayed to the users. For example, the systems and methods can be implemented to display on a first window portion a plurality of graphical representations of ship motion forecasts generated over a plurality of forecast cycles, where the graphical representations of new ship motion forecasts are added as generated, and where the graphical representations of previously generated ship motion forecasts are scrolled down/up/across the window portion as new ship motion forecasts are added.
Such an implementation allows a user to simultaneously view an “ensemble” of ship motion forecasts in a way that can give unique and useful information to the user. Specifically, such an implementation allows the ensemble of forecasts to be displayed in a way that facilitates the quick determination of consistency and uncertainty in the plurality of forecasts. Specifically, as the graphical representations of the forecasts scroll across the window portion a trained user can quickly ascertain both the magnitude of future ship motions and the consistency of the those forecasts generated over a set of forecast cycles. This can provide the user with an improved understanding of the likely accuracy and reliability of the ship motion forecasts and thus can allow a user to make more informed operational decisions based on those forecasts.
In general, the systems and methods transmit radar signals that are reflected off the surface of a body of water. The reflected radar signals are received, and radar data is generated from the received radar signals. The radar data is used to generate ocean wave components, which represent the amplitude and phase of a multitude of individual waves that together can describe the surface of the ocean. These ocean wave components are then used to estimate future applied forces on a ship on the body of water. The estimate of future applied forces is then used to generate ship motion forecasts, which can then be presented to one or more users in the form of scrolling graphical representations of the ship motion forecasts that can be displayed to the users. For example, the scrolling graphical representations can be presented ship cargo operators and used to determine when ship-to-ship transfers of cargo can be safely performed. In particular, the systems and methods described herein can facilitate improved safety in complex ship-to-ship (S2S) operations.
Turning now to
The ship motion sensor 110 provides measurement data of ship motions for an associated ship or ships. For example, the ship motion sensor 110 can provide ship motion measurements for one or more of the six degrees of freedom (pitch, heave, roll, sway, surge and yaw) in which a ship can move. Such motion measurements can be used by the ship motion forecasting system 100 to provide an initial kinematic state or state history of the ship from which the impact of future waves can be determined. Additionally, in some embodiments the ship motion sensor 110 or other sensors and systems can provide ship tracking direction and ship location information. For example, Global Positioning System (GPS) systems and/or orientation devices (e.g. Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU)) can provide ship direction and tracking information to the ship motion forecasting system 100.
The radar 108 provides radar data to the ship motion forecasting system 100. Using this radar data and the data from the ship motion sensor 110, the ship motion forecasting system 100 generates ship motion forecasts that predict the future motion of one or more ships. Specifically, the wave component generator 102 is configured to receive the radar data from the radar 108 and generate the ocean wave components that describe waves likely to impact the ship. The ship motion predictor 104 uses these ocean wave components to generate ship motion forecasts.
In general, the ocean wave components are numerical representations of wave characteristics, and thus can include numerical representations of the wave height (e.g., amplitude) and wave timing (e.g. phase) of discrete wave frequencies and directions on a portion of the water surface. These ocean wave components can collectively be used to characterize the surrounding wave field on the water surface at the present and for the near term future. These ocean wave components can thus provide phase-resolved ocean surface height representations of waves on the water surface that can be used to generate real time ship motion prediction. Such phase-resolved ocean surface heights can be combined with time geographic (i.e., spatiotemporal) location information of the forecasted waves along with spectral (i.e., direction, period, and energy) information to generate ship motion forecasts.
The ship motion forecasts generated by the ship motion forecasting system 100 predict the future motion of the ship for at least one degree of freedom (pitch, heave, roll, sway, surge and/or yaw) and for determined period of time. These ship motion forecasts can be generated as discrete time domain signals that extend from a current time to a future time. As one specific example, the ship motion forecasting system 100 can be implemented to predict and provide a time domain signal forecasting heave for 30˜180 seconds in future time with each new forecast. Additionally, the ship motion forecasting system 100 can be implemented to repeatedly generate these ship motion forecasts.
For example, the ship motion forecasting system 100 can be configured to generate a new ship motion forecast with each new processing cycle where new data is available from the radar(s) 108 and ship motion sensor(s) 110. In such an embodiment a new ship motion forecast would typically be generated every 1˜3 seconds, with each new forecast providing a new prediction of ship motion for the following 30˜180 seconds. These new forecasts can be displayed or otherwise outputted individually or in combination with past forecasts and other data.
In some embodiments the ship motion forecasting system 100 can be implemented to forecast future ship motions for a single ship in open water. In other embodiments the ship motion forecasting system 100 can be implemented to forecast future ship motions for two or more ships coupled together though a non-negligible mechanical coupling (e.g., rope and fender) or hydrodynamic forces. Furthermore, the ship motion forecasting system 100 can be implemented to predict ship motions for stationary ships, moving ships, or combinations of both. Furthermore, it should be noted the ship motion forecasting system 100 could be implemented to predict motion in any type of ship, including but not limited to large transport ships, roll-on roll-off ships, tankers, drilling vessels or platforms, construction vessels or platforms, supply vessels, production vessels or platforms, etc.
In some embodiments, the motion forecast system 100 can combine the generated ship motion forecasts with Meteorological and Oceanographic (METOC) numerical models and direct buoy observations to provide vessel operational planning guidance for longer time periods. For example, such systems can be implemented to provide operational planning for hours and days ahead, and can thus provide advanced planning to ship crews.
The user interface 106 is configured to generate one or more indications of the ship motion forecasts and display those indications on the display(s) 112. Again, these scrolling graphical representations of ship motion forecasts can include representations of ship motion forecasts in one or more of the six degrees of freedom (pitch, heave, roll, sway, surge and yaw). In accordance with the embodiments described herein, those indications include at least a scrolling graphical representation of ship motion forecasts. These scrolling graphical representations of ship motion forecasts provide users with forecast information generated over a plurality of forecast cycles. Finally, it should be noted that other types of indications of ship motion forecasts can be outputted to the display(s) 112 and provided to a user.
For example, the ship motion forecast system 100 can be implemented to display on a first window portion of display 112 a plurality of graphical representations of future ship motions generated over a plurality of forecast cycles, where the graphical representations of new ship motion forecasts are added as generated, and where the graphical representations of previously generated ship motion forecasts are scrolled across the window portion as new future ship motion forecasts are added.
Turning now to
Thus, for each processing cycle of the ship motion forecasting system 100 a new representation can be generated and added to the window portion 114, and the previous representations scrolled down the window portion 114 to accommodate the new representation. In doing so the oldest representation can be dropped from the window portion 114 with each cycle.
Again, such an embodiment provides a scrolling representation of ship motion forecasts. This scrolling representation allows a user to simultaneously view an “ensemble” of ship motion forecasts in the window portion 114 in a way that can give unique and useful information to the user. Specifically, such an implementation allows the ensemble of forecasts (N to N-9) to be displayed on the window portion 114 in a way that facilitates the quick determination of the magnitude of each of the plurality of forecasts. Furthermore, as the graphical representations of the forecasts scroll down the window portion 114 a user can quickly ascertain the consistency in the magnitude of future ship motions. This allows a user to make a visual determination of variability and thus the potential uncertainty of those forecasts. This can thus provide the user with an improved understanding of the likely accuracy of the ship motion forecasts and thus can allow a user to make more informed operational decisions based on those forecasts.
In a typical implementation each graphical representation of ship motion forecasts comprises a row of elements, where each element in the row corresponds to a forecast for some specific future time. As one example, a ship motion forecast can comprise 60 seconds of forecasts (e.g., from the current time to 60 seconds in the future) with each row in the window portion 114 providing a graphical representation of the 60 seconds of forecasts. In such an embodiment, a graphical element or subset of graphical elements in the row can then represent the forecast for some portion of the 60 seconds.
These ship motion forecasts can be represented in the graphical representations to show motion relative to a mean position, or to show motion in different directions. Furthermore, a variety of graphical elements can be used to represent the ship motion forecasts. For example, relatively high intensity pixels can be used to represent predicted motion in a first direction and relatively low intensity pixels can be used to represent predicted motion in a second direction opposite the first direction. Alternatively, relatively high intensity pixels can be used to represent relatively large predicted motion relative to a defined mean or baseline, and relatively low intensity pixels can be used to represent relatively small predicted motion relative to the defined mean or baseline.
As detailed example, the graphical elements can be implemented to represent different forecast ship motion values with different intensities of light or different colors. In one example that will be illustrated below, different forecast ship motion values can be represented in grayscale.
It should be noted that while this example shows the graphical representations of future ship motions scrolling down the window portion 114, that other implementations are possible. For example, the graphical representations can be made to scroll up, left or right across the window portion 114.
As noted above, in the example of
Like the representations of the ship motion forecasts, the graphical representations of past ship motion forecasts in the second window portion 122 and the graphical representations of ship motion measurements in the third window portion 124 can be implemented as scrolling representations. Thus, the graphical representations of “new” past ship motion forecasts are added to the second window portion 122 and graphical representations of “previous” past ship motion forecasts are scrolled down the second window portion 122. Likewise, the graphical representations of “new” past ship motion measurements are added to the third window portion 124 and graphical representations of “previous” past ship motion measurements are scrolled down the third window portion 124.
In the embodiment of
As another example, the window portions 120, 122 and 124 can be arranged such that graphical elements of the graphical representations of past ship motion forecasts are vertically aligned with graphical elements of the graphical representations of past ship motion measurements for the same time. Thus, the past ship motion forecasts can be easily visually compared to the past ship motion measurements for the same time.
So implemented, the ship motion forecasting system 100 can provide detailed, real-time wave characterization in the form of a self-calibrating energy power spectrum, sea heights for various frequency (wave period) bands, and trends of the ocean environment, as well as trends of the measured resultant vessel motions.
Turning now to
In a typical implementation, the radar 201 antenna rotates while transmitting and receiving the radar signals 202, resulting in an azimuthal and range scan of the water surface 204. Turning now to
Turning now to
The first step 302 is to generate radar data using radars. As was described above, the radar data can include data for each of a plurality of patches, where each patch corresponds to one portion of an azimuthal sector of the water surface. To generate this radar data one or more radars are used to transmit radar signals toward the water surface. The radar signals reflect off the water surface and are received back at the radar, where the reflected radar signals are used to generate the radar data.
Additionally, a variety of different types of radars can be used in the ship motion forecasting system. For example, the radars can be implemented with X-band Doppler radars. For example, a 2 kilowatt coherent X-band radar with an antenna mounted 30 meters above the water surface can provide accurate Doppler (i.e. frequency-shift) sensing to 5 kilometers, enabling a 5 minute ship motion forecast capability. In such an embodiment the radar can be configured to have an azimuthal resolution of ˜2.5 degrees and range resolution of ˜7.5 meters, and an azimuthal scanning interval of less than 3 seconds. This can result in ˜30,000 scanning patches of sizes of 30˜1000 square meters being processed per second. As one specific example, the radars can be implemented with marine X-Band (9.4 GHz) Doppler radars. Such radars can be implemented to measure the ocean surface orbital radial-velocities through the Bragg backscattering in an area around the vessels out to several thousand meters. Of course, these are just some examples and other implementations are possible.
Again, the radar signals reflect off the water surface and are received back at the radar, where the reflected radar signals are used to generate the radar data. The next step 304 is to generate ocean wave components from the received radar data. Again, the ocean wave components are numerical representations of wave characteristics, and thus can include numerical representations of the wave height (e.g., amplitude) and wave timing (e.g. phase) of discrete wave frequencies and directions on a portion of the water surface. These ocean wave components can be generated from the radar data for tens-of-thousands of patches per second, where again each patch is a portion of the surface that can be moving a result of the multitude of waves that comprise the surface at any particular time. In general, step 304 determines the ocean wave components that are most consistent with the radar data and will thus describe the overall wave field on the water surface.
In a typical implementation new ocean wave components would be generated for each new wave forecast, with each new wave forecast corresponding to new scans of the radar made during one processing cycle, typically a second or two.
Because the typical wave field does not change rapidly on the time-scale of seconds newly generated wave components can be compared to previous wave components to further refine the component solution using statistical means. For example, consistency from one processing cycle to the next indicates accuracy, and averaging across processing cycles for the same wave component can improve the solution.
In a typical embodiment these ocean wave components would be generated only using patches of the water surface which contain waves that may impact the ship motion. This determination of likely impact can be made based on a known or estimated directional wave spectrum and the current ship speed and heading. Furthermore, this initial determination can be made before the ocean wave components are generated and thus can be used to reduce the number of components that need to be generated and thus reduce the amount of computing resources required. As will be described in greater detail below with reference to
The next step 306 is to generate ship motion forecasts from the ocean wave components. These ship motion forecasts can include ship motion forecasts in one or more of the six degrees of freedom (pitch, heave, roll, sway, surge and yaw) that ship motion can occur in. In some embodiments, the ship motion forecasts can be generated as statistical representations of expected ship motions for various ship courses and speeds. In other embodiments, the ship motion forecasts can provide precise time-specific predictions of ship motion.
In general, these ship motion forecasts can be generated by determining the forces that will be applied to the ship by each of various wave components that will impact the ship, and combining the results. Again, in a typical embodiment new ship motion forecasts would be generated for each forecast cycle.
In one specific embodiment, a reduced-order model (ROM) for ship motions can be used to determine the ship motions. For example, a reduced-order lumped-parameter time-domain model for ship motions can be used. Such a model can be used with Cummins equation approach to provide the desired computational speed for generating future ship motion predictions. In the Cummins equation motions of one or multiple (N) ships is represented as a 6×N degree-of-freedom system represented by 6×N equations. The formulation uses the state as an initial condition in a time-domain solution, and the state history is used in a convolution with pre-calculated impulse-response functions. An example of such a model can be found at “Development of an Environmental and Ship Motion Forecasting System” by Benjamin S. H. Connell et al, Proceedings of the ASME 2015 34th International Conference on the Ocean, Offshore and Artic Engineering.
Such a model can be used to calculate ship motions for particular ships or particular multi-ship arrangements. The necessary added inertia and hydrostatic restoring terms are pre-calculated from a representation of the ship geometry and input mass specifications. The impulse-response functions and force response amplitude operator functions are pre-calculated through a discretized range of speeds, and wave frequencies and directions, yielding a database which characterizes the hydrodynamic forcing to the ship through all relevant operating conditions. Particular values of these forcing functions are obtained through interpolation of values from the database. The approach uses the assumptions of linear seakeeping theory, where the hydrodynamic forcing can be decomposed into the incident wave, diffraction and radiation forces. The pre-calculated wave-forcing database allows mapping of the discrete wave components to modal forcing of the ship system. Thus, resultant vessel motions for different courses and speeds can be calculated for the recommendation model. This lookup database can then be used during operation of the forecasting system to provide the ship motions that will result from the waves that are forecast to impact the ship.
During operation the generated ocean wave components can then be used as real time inputs to the lookup database, with the lookup database providing necessary terms to calculate the resulting forecasts of ship motions. As one example, the lookup database can provide the coefficients for the Cummins equation that describes the motions of the one or more ships that motions are being forecast for in the particular implementation of the ship forecasting system. Thus, the lookup database with pre-calculated values can be used to provide fast determinations of ship motion forecasts. This can facilitate the real time determination of several minutes of ship motion forecasts for each radar scan and each cycle of wave component calculation.
The next step 308 is to generate scrolling representations of the generated ship motion forecasts. In general, the scrolling representations of the generated ship motion forecasts that can be outputted to a display (e.g., display(s) 112). Furthermore, the scrolling representations of ship motion forecasts can be combined any other type of graphical or other representation of the ship motion forecasts on the display.
Again, these scrolling representations of ship motion forecasts can include representations of ship motion forecasts in one or more of the six degrees of freedom (pitch, heave, roll, sway, surge and yaw). These scrolling representations of ship motion forecasts provide users with forecast information generated over a plurality of forecast processing cycles. Furthermore, in some embodiments the scrolling graphical representations can include representations of ship motion forecasts, past ship motion forecasts, and past ship motion measurements.
Turning now to
The display screen representation 400 includes a scrolling representation section 401 and a time-domain section 403. The time-domain section 403 of the display screen representation 400 includes a first time domain plot 402, a second time domain plot 404 and a third time domain plot 406 Specifically, the first time domain plot 402 shows a forecast of future ship motions for one degree of freedom (e.g., a selected one of the six degrees of freedom). In this example the first time domain plot 402 represents a generated ship motion forecast for the next 60 seconds (i.e., from time 0 to time 60, where time 0 is the current time). The second time domain plot 404 illustrates a past ship motion forecast for the same one degree of freedom. In this example the second time domain plot represents a past ship motion forecast for the previous 60 seconds (i.e., from time −60 to time 0). Finally, the third time domain plot 406 illustrates past ship motion measurements for the same one degree of freedom. These are measurements of the actual ship motion that can again be generated using one or more motion sensors (e.g., sensors 110) on the ship. The past ship motion measurements in the third time domain plot 406 are likewise illustrated for the previous 60 seconds (i.e., from time −60 to time 0).
In a typical embodiment, a new first time domain plot 402 would be generated each cycle, e.g., for each processing cycle. Thus, for each cycle a new 60 second ship motion forecast is generated, and a new first time domain plot 402 is generated to represent the new forecast. The second time domain plot 404 and third time domain plot 406 could also be updated each cycle or at any other selected rate.
It should be noted however that in this example the first time domain plot 402 provides a representation of only one ship motion forecast for one of the degrees of freedom produced by one processing cycle of the system. The system generates a new ship motion forecast for one or more of the six degrees of freedom with each processing cycle. In contrast, the scrolling representation section 401 simultaneously displays multiple cycles of ship motion forecasts.
The scrolling representation section 401 includes a first window portion 420, a second window portion 422, and a third window portion 424 generated by the ship motion forecasting system. The first window portion 420 includes graphical representations of forecasts of future ship motions, the second window portion 422 includes graphical representations of past ship motion forecasts, and the third window portion 424 includes graphical representations of past ship motion measurements. The ship motion forecasts are again forecasts generated over a plurality of forecast processing cycles that predict future ship motion. The past ship motion forecasts are forecasts that were likewise generated over a plurality of forecast processing cycles for which their associated time has passed. Finally, the past ship motion measurements are measurements of actual ship motion that has occurred in the past.
The first window portion 420, second window portion 422 and third window portion 424 will again typically be implemented to represent ship motion for one degree of freedom (e.g., a selected one of the six degrees of freedom), and more specifically, would typically be implemented to show the same degree of freedom as displayed in the time domain section 403.
In accordance with the embodiments described herein, the graphical representations of ship motions forecasts in the first window portion 420, the graphical representations of past ship motion forecasts in the second window portion 422 and the graphical representations of ship motion measurements in the third window portion 424 can each be implemented as scrolling representations. Thus, the graphical representations of “new” ship motion forecasts are added to the first window portion 422 while graphical representations of “previous” ship motion forecasts are scrolled down the first window portion 420. Likewise, the graphical representations of “new” past ship motion forecasts are added to the second window portion 422 while graphical representations of “previous” past ship motion forecasts are scrolled down the second window portion 422. Finally, the graphical representations of “new” past ship motion measurements are added to the third window portion 424 and graphical representations of “previous” past ship motion measurements are scrolled down the third window portion 424. This scrolling of ship motion forecasts and measurements creates visual ‘waterfalls” when viewed in real time.
The first window portion 420 represents generated ship motion forecast for up to 60 seconds (i.e., from time 0 up to time +60), although as will be explained below not all ship motion forecasts shown in the first window section 420 extend for the full 60 seconds. The second window portion 422 likewise illustrates a past ship motion forecasts for up to a previous 60 seconds (i.e., from time −60 to time 0), although again not all past ship motion forecasts extend for the full 60 seconds. Finally, the third window portion 424 illustrates past ship motion measurements are likewise illustrated for up to the previous 60 seconds (i.e., from time −60 to time 0).
In
In this example graphical representation 430 is in the top row of the first window portion 420, and thus represents the newest of the future motion forecast. This means that the graphical representation 430 represents the same forecasts represented in the time domain plot 402.
It should next be noted that in these examples the rows are not necessarily drawn to scale, and typically each row would be much thinner to allow for more graphical representations to be simultaneously displayed in each window portion. For example, in a typical embodiment each window portion could include 30-90 rows and thus first window portion 420 could display ship more forecasts from 30-90 processing cycles at once. Likewise, the second window portion 422 and third window portion 424 would display the same number of past ship motion forecasts and past ship motion measurements so that corresponding forecasts and measurements can align horizontally. However, note that in some embodiments the new ship motion forecasts do not need to be generated at precisely defined regular intervals. Instead, the thickness or height of the representations can be made proportional to the time between each processing cycle. Conversely, an interpolation scheme can be used to set make the representations appear at fixed intervals despite the variability in the forecast processing cycle rate.
In this example, the graphical representation 430 of ship motion forecasts comprises a row of elements, where each element in the row corresponds to a forecast for some specific future time (e.g., 5, 10, 20, 60 seconds in the future).
Furthermore, in this example, the row elements are represented in grayscale, with relatively high intensity pixels of grayscale used to represent predicted motion in a first direction and relatively low intensity pixels of grayscale used to represent predicted motion in a second direction opposite the first direction. However, this is just one example, and in other examples relatively high intensity pixels can be used to represent relatively large deviations from a mean, while relatively low intensity pixels represent relatively small deviations from the mean.
As was described, in a typical embodiment each row in the first window portion 420 can represent forecasts of future ship motion generated during one processing cycle of the ship motion forecasting system. For example, the system can generate 60 seconds of ship motion forecasts each processing cycle, and a representation of such a forecast can added to the top row of the first window portion 420 while graphical representations of “previous” ship motion forecasts are scrolled down the first window portion 420. It should be noted that while this scrolling occurs a portion of what was a representation of a ship motion forecast becomes part of a past ship motion forecast.
Turning to
As was described above, with each new cycle a new forecast is generated and the previously generated representations are scrolled down. Thus, the graphical representation 450 would scroll down a row with each new generated forecast. As this scrolling occurs portions of the “future” ship motion effectively become “past” ship motion forecasts. Furthermore, with this scrolling the portion of the graphical representation pertaining to these now past ship motion forecast moves into the second window portion 422.
Turning to
It should be noted that in this configuration the display screen representation 400 allows a user to quickly ascertain the consistency in the magnitude of future ship motions. Specifically, in this example the ship motion forecasts taken over many processing cycles are aligned such that forecasts for the same time are in the same horizontal position. As an example, the line 460 indicates where the plurality of forecasts for what is now 22 seconds in the future predicts the future ship motion. The line 460 is an isochrone line that connects points relating to the same time. Thus, by scanning up and down the first window portion 420 along line 460 a user can determine how consistent the forecasts have been for the time 22 seconds in the future. This allows a user to make a visual determination of variability and thus the potential uncertainty of those forecasts. Thus, a user is provided with an improved understanding of the likely accuracy of the forecasts of future ship motions and thus the display screen representation 400 can allow a user to make more informed operational decisions based on those forecasts.
Furthermore, the display screen representation 400 allows a user to quickly ascertain the accuracy of past ship motion forecasts. Specifically, in this example past ship motion forecasts taken over many cycles are aligned such that forecasts for the same time are in the same horizontal position. Furthermore, these past ship motion forecasts are aligned with past ship measurements for the same time. As an example, the line 462 indicates where the plurality of past forecasts for what is now 14 seconds in the past predicted for motion and what the ship motion sensors actually measured at that time. The line 462 is again an isochrone line that connects points relating to the same time. Thus, by scanning up and down the second window portion 422 and the third window portion 424 along line 462 a user can determine how accurate the past forecasts were for the time 14 seconds in the past. This again allows a user to make a visual determination of variability and accuracy of the forecasts being generated by the system, and can allow a user to make more informed operational decisions based on those forecasts.
In one embodiment the ship motion forecasting system can use multiple radars (e.g., multiples of radar 108) to generate the ship motion forecasts. Each of these multiple radars would include its own radar transceiver, and thus each of the multiple radars is able to independently transmit and receive radar signals. Each of the multiple radars can thus independently transmit radar signals that reflect off the water surface, are received, and are used to generate radar data. The radar data from the multiple radars can then combined and used to generate the ocean wave components by the ocean wave component generator. The generated ocean wave components are then used to generate the ship motion forecasts.
The use of multiple radars can improve the forecasting of wave and ship motion in a variety of ways. For example, the use of multiple radars can increase the accuracy the generated ocean wave components by inputting more observations of the ocean surface. The use of multiple radars also effectively increases the signal-to-noise ratio of the radar signals used to generate ocean wave components. Increased signal-to-noise ratio reduces the error in the wave computational process and yields more accurate wave field calculations and thus more accurate ship motion forecast. The use of multiple radars can also increase the scanned area of the water surface and can thus facilitate more comprehensive wave and corresponding ship motion forecasts. For example, in many applications a single radar could not be effectively positioned to provide a full 360 degree scan of the water surface around a ship. However, with multiple radars the different radars can be configured to operate in different regions or at different ranges in a way that together provides full or nearly full 360 degree view of the surrounding area and to the extent of maximum range.
In some embodiments, the radar data from multiple radars is combined by separately generating moment data from the radar data from each radar, filtering the generated moment data, and then combining the filtered moment data. This combined moment data can then be used to more accurately generate the ocean wave components. In yet other embodiments, the radar data from the multiple radars is combined by generating ocean wave components from radar data from each radar separately and then combining the ocean wave components.
The use of multiple radars in generating ship motion forecasts can be implemented in a variety of ways. For example, the multiple radars can be mounted together on one ship, or can be mounted across multiple ships. In one embodiment, a first radar is positioned to have a view of the body of water proximate the fore region of the ship, while the second radar is positioned on the ship to have a view of the body of water proximate an aft region of the ship. In such an embodiment, the first radar can position in the fore region of the ship, while the second radar is positioned in the aft region of the ship. In another embodiment, a first radar is positioned to have a view of the body of water proximate the starboard region of the ship, while the second radar is positioned on the ship to have a view of the body of water proximate the port region of the ship. In such an embodiment, the first radar can be positioned in a starboard region of the ship, while the second radar is positioned in a port region of the ship. Finally, it should be noted that none of these embodiments are limited to using only two radars. And thus three or more radars could also be implemented and used.
As was described above, in some embodiments the ship motion forecasting systems and methods use radar data to determine ocean wave components, and from those ocean wave components determine future ship motion forecasts (See step 304 in method 300). A variety of different techniques can be used to generate such ocean wave components from the radar data. Turning now to
The first step 502 is to generate moment data from the radar data. In general, the moment data can include frequency and power information statistically derived from the radar data. For example, moment data can comprise the frequency-shift value (i.e. Doppler shift) of the radar signal which corresponds to the velocity of the ocean surface patch at a particular azimuth, range, and time. Moment data can also include the power return of the radar signal and the signal-to-noise ratio. In in a typical embodiment step 502 would be performed for each processing cycle. Thus, new moment data can be generated for each scan of each radar. Furthermore, this radar data includes both in-phase (I) and quadrature phase (Q) components which are used to calculate the moment data.
As was described above, the radar data can include radar data from one or more radars. In these embodiments first moment data can generated from the first radar data generated by the first radar, while second moment data is generated from the second radar data generated by the second radar. The first moment data can then represent a frequency shift of the first radar signals, while the second moment data can represent a frequency shift in the second radar signals.
As one example, a method of moments analysis can be performed on the radar data from these one or more radars to determine the frequency shift for the returned radar signals for each patch of the water surface. Additionally, the method of moments analysis can determine both signal variance and signal power return for each patch of the water surface. The frequency shift of the returned radar signals, sometimes referred to as a Doppler shift, results from the relative motion of the corresponding patch of water, and thus can be used to determine the wave velocity of the corresponding patch of water surface.
In one embodiment the methods of spectral moments analysis provide as a first moment a peak frequency shift, and as a second moment a distribution or variance of the frequency shift. From this, the methods of spectral moments analysis provides a distribution or spectrum of velocities for each patch of water. This distribution or spectrum of velocities can be characterized by its variance, and such a variance can be considered a measure of the signal to noise ratio of the distribution. For a more detailed example of such a spectral moments analysis see “Development of an Environmental and Ship Motion Forecasting System” by Benjamin S. H. Connell et al, Proceedings of the ASME 2015 34th International Conference on the Ocean, Offshore and Artic Engineering.
The next step 504 is to filter the moment data. In general, this filtering of the moment data is performed to identify and isolate the moment data that is likely relevant to making ship motion forecasts while removing other moment data. For example, the filtering can be performed on a sector-by-sector or patch-by-patch basis by identifying which sectors and/or patches of the water surface contain waves that are likely to significantly cause ship motion and isolating the moment data for those patches. By filtering the moment data to include only moment data that is relevant to ship motion forecasts the computational intensity of later steps in the process can be greatly reduced. Specifically, the number of ocean wave components that will be need to be generated from the moment data is significantly reduced by the filtering, and thus the process can be completed faster and with less computational resources.
In one embodiment, the step 504 keeps only the moment data from sectors and/or patches of water which have been identifies as containing wave features that are likely to impact the motion of the ship. This can be performed by identifying which sectors and/or patches contain wave-features that are moving at a speed and in a direction that will result in the waves hitting the ship, taking into account the location, speed and direction of the ship. To facilitate this information regarding the direction and speed of the ship can be provided by GPS and/or the ship navigation system.
Thus, in an embodiment with one or more radars, the filtering of first moment data can comprise filtering based at least in part on wave-feature speed and/or direction for each sector in a first plurality of sectors in the first portion of the body water to identify portions of the first plurality of sectors that contain waves relevant to forecasting ship motion. Likewise, the filtering of second moment data can comprise filtering based at least in part on wave-feature speed and/or direction for each sector in a second plurality of sectors in the second portion of the body water to identify portions of the second plurality of sectors that contain waves relevant to forecasting ship motion.
A relatively quick determination of the direction of waves in each patch can be determined by generating a two dimensional directional spectrum from the radar data without regard to wave phase or timing. This determination of the direction of waves and which waves will hit the ship can be made on azimuthal sector by sector basis, such that the moment data for sectors that contain waves moving in a direction that may impact the ship can be identified and kept, while the moment data for other sectors is filtered out. In making these determinations the waves in each of the various sectors can be assumed to closely follow linear wave theory where the speed of wave depends upon the wavelength or frequency of the wave.
As another example, the distance to waves in each patch can be quickly determined and patches that are too far or too close to impact ship motion in a selected time period can be excluded. In a typical embodiment these distances can be preconfigured based on typical wave speeds during set up of the wave forecasting system.
Furthermore, this filtering can be performed by identifying which patches contain waves having a period or frequency that is likely to induce significant motion in a degree of freedom of interest. In this case that would depend on the size and shape of the ship. For example, in system designed for a material transport ship the moment data for patches that contain waves having a period below 7 seconds and longer than 18 seconds may be filtered out as not likely to cause significant ship motion. Again, in a typical embodiment these periods of interest can be selected during set up of the wave forecasting system based on the parameters of the ship.
Thus, in an embodiment with one or more radars, the filtering of first moment data can comprise filtering based at least in part on wave period for each sector in a first plurality of sectors in the first portion of the body water to identify portions of the first plurality of sectors that contain waves relevant to forecasting ship motion. Likewise, the filtering of second moment data can comprise filtering based at least in part on wave period for each sector in a second plurality of sectors in the second portion of the body water to identify portions of the second plurality of sectors that contain waves relevant to forecasting ship motion.
Furthermore, this filtering can be configured to remove redundant radar data received from the one or more radars by filtering out overlapping data. Specifically, in this embodiment the filtered data from each of the one or more radars is limited to certain patches of the body water such that remaining data for each patch was received from only one radar. In this embodiment the filtered radar data that can be selected based on the relative positions of each radar, the power of the received radar signals from each radar, or noise in the radar data from each radar.
In other embodiments the moment data for patches with relatively high-energy waves are kept while moment data for low energy areas is filtered out.
In each of these examples the step 504 filters the moment data identify and isolate the moment data that is likely relevant to making ship motion forecasts. By filtering the moment data to include only moment data that is relevant to ship motion forecasts the computational intensity required for the next step can be greatly reduced.
The next step 506 is to generate ocean wave components from the filtered moment data. Again, these ocean wave components are discrete representations that describe a sensed wave, and in a typical embodiment new ocean wave components would be generated using the plurality of patches from several scans of the radar (tens of seconds), filtered by which patches contain information about wave-features that likely to impact future ship motions. When completely generated the collection of ocean wave components can define the portions of the water surface relevant to ship motion forecasting by wave frequency, direction of propagation, amplitude and phase. Furthermore, a linear superposition of these generated ocean wave components and their evolution in time can then be used to provide a deterministic forecast of the ocean surface elevation over a forecast interval.
A variety of techniques can be used to generate the ocean wave components. As a general example, a regression processes can be used to generate ocean wave components by iteratively selecting ocean wave components that loosely match the filtered moment data. Such a regression process can be considered to be an over-constrained least-squares fitting of the filtered moment data to the desired set of ocean wave components. This regression processes effectively facilitates the reconstruction of the relevant wave field from the filtered moment data, with that reconstruction taking the form of the generated ocean wave components. It should be noted again that the generated ocean wave components in this process are over-determined, and this allows the regression to overcome noise in the filtered moment data.
Generally the regression is configured to determine the number of ocean wave components necessary to define a stable solution for the portions of the water surface at interest. This number of ocean wave components can be predetermined and configured in the setup of the system.
As one example, in an implementation that utilizes on the order of ˜100,000 pieces of moment data the system can be configured to generate 1000 discrete ocean wave components.
With the ocean wave components generated they can be used to generate future ship motion forecasts. As described above with reference to step 306 of
As was described above, the ship motion forecasting systems and methods described herein can use multiple radars to generate the ship motion forecasts. These multiple radars each transmit radar signals that reflect off the water surface, are received, and used to generate radar data. To facilitate the use of multiple radars in a ship motion forecasting system the radars can be configured to scan different areas of the water surface. In some embodiments these different areas can be non-overlapping while in other embodiments the different areas are partially overlapping.
Turning now to
Because the first radar performs a rotational scan these areas scanned by the first radar can be considered to comprise a first a plurality of azimuthal sectors 606. Likewise, the second radar is configured to transmit radar signals 603 that reflect off the water surface 604 at areas relatively close to the ship 600. Again, because the second radar performs a azimuthal scan these areas scanned by the second radar can be considered to comprise a second plurality of azimuthal sectors 610. The reflected radar signals 602 and 603 are received back at the ship 600 where they are used to determine a forecast of future ship motion. It should be noted that while the first plurality of azimuthal sectors 606 and the second plurality of azimuthal sectors 610 are not shown as overlapping, that in some embodiments the scan areas and resulting azimuthal sectors could partially overlap. Finally, it should be noted that
Again, the radar signals 602 and 603 can be utilized and combined in multiple ways. In some embodiments, the radar data from radar signals 602 and 603 can be combined by generating moment data from the radar signals 602 and 603 separately, filtering the generated moment data, and then combining the filtered moment data to generate all of the ocean wave components. In yet other embodiments, the radar data from radar signals 602 and 603 can be combined by generating ocean wave components from radar signals separately and then combining the ocean wave components. For example, the radar signals 602 and 603 from non-overlapping angular regions can first be separately processed to generate ocean wave components for the non-overlapping angular regions, and then those ocean wave components can be combined.
Again, this is just one example of how multiple radars can be configured and used for ship motion forecasting. Turning now to
In this embodiment the two radars 702 and 704 can together provide a full-field (e.g., 360 degree) scan of the water surface around the ship 700. Furthermore, this 360 degree scan can be provided for ships were the structure and arrangement of the ship would block a full scan from a single radar. For example, where significant radar blocking structure (e.g., the main bridge) exists along the axis of the ship 700.
While
The first ship 750 includes a first radar 752 and the second ship 751 includes a second radar 754. Specifically, at least the antenna for the first radar 752 is mounted on the first ship 750, while at least the antenna the second radar 754 is mounted on the second ship 751. The two radars 752 and 754 are again configured to scan different areas of the water surface. Specifically, in this configuration the first radar 752 is configured to transmit radar signals that reflect off the water surface in region 760, around the fore area of the ship 750 and ship 751. The second radar 754 is configured to transmit radar signals that reflect off the water surface in region 764, around the aft area of the ship 750 and ship 751. Again, these regions 760 and 762 can both be considered to comprise a plurality of azimuthal sectors defined by the scanning region of the corresponding radar. It again should be noted that the regions 760 and 762 are not drawn to scale, and in a typical implementation the radars would be configured to scan a much larger area relative to the ships 750 and 751.
It should be noted that in this embodiment a communication network between the radars 752 and 754 can be established and used to facilitate the collection of the radar data at a single ship motion forecasting system. For example, a wireless data network can be established between the two ships 750 and 751 and used to transfer the radar data from one ship to the other, where the ship motion forecasting of both ships can then be performed together on one unified system. It should also be noted that in some cases some processing of the radar data could be performed on one ship before the radar data is transferred to the other ship to reduce the data-rate of the communications network between the ships.
Again, the radar signals generated by two radars in
Turning now to
The processor 1010 performs the computation and control functions of the system 1000. The processor 1010 may comprise any type of processor, include single integrated circuits such as a microprocessor, or may comprise any suitable number of integrated circuit devices and/or circuit boards working in cooperation to accomplish the functions of a processing unit. In addition, processor 1010 may comprise multiple processors implemented on separate systems. For example, in the context of a multi-ship system (e.g.,
Memory 1080 can be any type of suitable memory. This would include the various types of dynamic random access memory (DRAM) such as SDRAM, the various types of static RAM (SRAM), and the various types of non-volatile memory (PROM, EPROM, and flash). It should be understood that memory 1080 may be a single type of memory component, or it may be composed of many different types of memory components. In addition, the memory 1080 and the processor 1010 may be distributed across several different physical devices that collectively comprise processing system 1000. For example, a portion of memory 1080 may reside on one computer system, and another portion may reside on a second computer system. For a specific example, in the context of a multi-ship system (e.g.,
The bus 1070 serves to transmit programs, data, status and other information or signals between the various components of processing system 1000. The bus 1070 can be any suitable physical or logical means of connecting computer systems and components. This includes, but is not limited to, direct hard-wired connections, fiber optics, infrared and wireless bus technologies. It should also be noted that aspects of the processing system 1000 could be implemented as a single system on a chip (SoC). In such a case the bus 1070 can comprise the internal bus of the SoC.
The interface 1030 allows communication to the processing system 1000, and can be implemented using any suitable method and apparatus. It can include a network interfaces to communicate to other systems such on board ship navigation and control systems and, terminal interfaces to communicate with technicians, and storage interfaces to connect to storage apparatuses such as storage device 1090. Storage device 1090 can be any suitable type of storage apparatus, including direct access storage devices such as hard disk drives, flash systems, solid-state drives and optical disk drives. As shown in
It should be understood that while the present invention is described here in the context of a fully functioning computer system, those skilled in the art will recognize that the mechanisms of the present invention are capable of being distributed as a program product in a variety of forms, and that the embodiments described herein apply equally regardless of the particular type of recordable media used to carry out the distribution. Examples of recordable media include: magnetic disks, flash memory devices, hard drives, memory cards and optical disks (e.g., disc 1095).
The foregoing description of specific embodiments reveals the general nature of the inventive subject matter sufficiently that others can, by applying current knowledge, readily modify and/or adapt it for various applications without departing from the general concept. Therefore, such adaptations and modifications are within the meaning and range of equivalents of the disclosed embodiments. The inventive subject matter embraces all such alternatives, modifications, equivalents, and variations as fall within the spirit and broad scope of the appended claims.
The forgoing detailed description is merely illustrative in nature and is not intended to limit the embodiments of the subject matter or the application and uses of such embodiments. As used herein, the word “exemplary” means “serving as an example, instance, or illustration.” Any implementation described herein as exemplary is not necessarily to be construed as preferred or advantageous over other implementations. Furthermore, there is no intention to be bound by any expressed or implied theory presented in the preceding technical field, background, brief summary or the following detailed description.
Techniques and technologies may be described herein in terms of functional and/or logical block components and with reference to symbolic representations of operations, processing tasks, and functions that may be performed by various computing components or devices. Such operations, tasks, and functions are sometimes referred to as being computer-executed, computerized, software-implemented, or computer-implemented. In practice, one or more processor devices can carry out the described operations, tasks, and functions by manipulating electrical signals representing data bits at memory locations in the system memory, as well as other processing of signals. The memory locations where data bits are maintained are physical locations that have particular electrical, magnetic, optical, or organic properties corresponding to the data bits. It should be appreciated that the various block components shown in the figures may be realized by any number of hardware, software, and/or firmware components configured to perform the specified functions. For example, an embodiment of a system or a component may employ various integrated circuit components, e.g., memory elements, digital signal processing elements, logic elements, look-up tables, or the like, which may carry out a variety of functions under the control of one or more microprocessors or other control devices.
Rudzinsky, Jason P., Milewski, William M., Kusters, Jr., John G., Connell, Benjamin S. H., Brundick, Christopher S., Cockrell, Kevin
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